some stuff from an acquaintance of mine.....he`s a solid martial artist himself,from what i understand....i asked a few questions....he put forth some early info...
-----------------------------------------------
Q)...how you been,bud?.......it`s almost ufc time again(the 31st,i believe)........
figured i`d check in with you on some of the matchups....
i took couture at -148 when it hit the board......went up to around -220....then they pulled it...?????....something going on?.....i can win some money being that the odds now show belfort at +180 at some venues...
penn looks to be in over his head,imo.....but,this isn`t my area of expertise,even though it seems like i`ve been watching these shows for a decade....and lovin` em.....
you are the guy to ask..i know it`s hard to form opinions without odds being on the board(i haven`t seen them-except for the couture/belfort line)..any opinions are appreciated.....
thanks again......
A).... Belforts sister has been missing for at least a week...there were a lot of questions as to whether he would fight and if he did, what his mental state would be. He has dropped out in the last two weeks more than any fighter in history, but it looks like he is going to fight. Hopefully, his sister is okay and doesnt turn up murdered.
"Good news for the UFC on Tuesday. Vitor Belfort has landed in Las Vegas and is relaxing from a very long plane ride. He seems to be in good spirits and looks forward to the fight.
Belfort arrived yesterday and despite everything that has been going on in his personal life, with his missing sister, Belfort is in great shape and looks forward to fighting Couture.
Vitor will train in Las Vegas over the next 9 days as he gets his body accustomed to Vegas from his home in Brazil and looks to focus on the UFC Light Heavyweight title as he told friends "I will bring the title back to my homeland of Brazil." He has said this fight will be a pleasant distraction from the events that has happened to his family. His sister is still missing and no new leads have been found in her case."
Taking a close look at Lee Murray. He stared out as an underdog, but looks like people have already jumped on it, went from +140 to a pick 'em -115.
__________________
Q)..... can`t find odds
on the event....oly/5 dimes/pinny are all crapping out......i know oly will eventually post....
thanks for the info...
A)....this is what they have at MVP: (you can see you did well with your Randy number)
Odds to win the Fight
101 Vitor Belfort +185
102 Randy Couture -235
103 Draw +1350
* Note: **** $5,000 MAXIMUM WAGER***
BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
Odds to win the Fight
201 BJ Penn +250
202 Matt Hughes -325
203 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$5,000 Maximum Wager***
Frank Mir vs Wes Simms
Odds to win the Fight
301 Frank Mir -235
302 Wes Simms +185
303 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Jorge Rivera vs Lee Murray
Odds to win the Fight
401 Jorge Rivera -115
402 Lee Murray -115
403 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Carlos Newton vs Renato Verissimo
Odds to win the Fight
501 Carlos Newton -300
502 Renato Verissimo +220
503 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Karo Parisyan vs George St Pierre
Odds to win the Fight
601 Karo Parisyan -280
602 George St Pierre +200
603 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Hermes Franca vs Josh Thomson
Odds to win the Fight
801 Hermes Franca -115
802 Josh Thomson -115
803 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Matt Serra vs Jeff Curran
Odds to win Fight
701 Matt Serra -450
702 Jeff Curran +300
703 Draw +1350
Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
__________________
Q)....... oly just posted...
wonder if joey was browsing the forum...lol...
i was looking at hughes/penn under 3 rds....isn`t penn more of a puncher...i would think that being naturally smaller...and not nearly as strong,penn would try and stay on his feet....while hughes will take him down....and once it gets to the ground,i don`t see penn doing well....
what`s your take,----?...
A)..... So here is the deal with Penn, and the reason why Hughes isnt closer to a 6-1 favorite. BJ is a BJJ black belt and was the first American to win as such in the BJJ World Championships in Brazil. He did this several years ago. He was a phenom on the ground, with a great guard...of course to be a champ he is good from all ground positions.
So while in MMA he seems almost like a standup guy, he has the ground game that few posess. And with Hughes, he was TWICE submitted by Dennis Hallman, so it has been proven that Matt can fall victim to subs.
That said, there is no way I would put big money against Matt. Penn is going up a weight class to face the strongest guy that division has ever seen. Penn will have a much better guard than someone like Trigg would have, but its still going to be tough. Newton is crafty as hell on the ground, but Matt slaughtered him the last time.
Basically, I wont bet this fight and will root for BJ as the underdog, which is the role he said he prefers.
But just not to forget that Hughes is beatable, Check him get choked out .....
------------------------------------------------
GUYS...i don`t profess to have any expertise in mma wagering....and don`t go by what i said...the other guy knows his stuff....but,proceed at your own risk....i may get some more from him prior to saturday night.......
g.l.
__________________
-----------------------------------------------
Q)...how you been,bud?.......it`s almost ufc time again(the 31st,i believe)........
figured i`d check in with you on some of the matchups....
i took couture at -148 when it hit the board......went up to around -220....then they pulled it...?????....something going on?.....i can win some money being that the odds now show belfort at +180 at some venues...
penn looks to be in over his head,imo.....but,this isn`t my area of expertise,even though it seems like i`ve been watching these shows for a decade....and lovin` em.....
you are the guy to ask..i know it`s hard to form opinions without odds being on the board(i haven`t seen them-except for the couture/belfort line)..any opinions are appreciated.....
thanks again......
A).... Belforts sister has been missing for at least a week...there were a lot of questions as to whether he would fight and if he did, what his mental state would be. He has dropped out in the last two weeks more than any fighter in history, but it looks like he is going to fight. Hopefully, his sister is okay and doesnt turn up murdered.
"Good news for the UFC on Tuesday. Vitor Belfort has landed in Las Vegas and is relaxing from a very long plane ride. He seems to be in good spirits and looks forward to the fight.
Belfort arrived yesterday and despite everything that has been going on in his personal life, with his missing sister, Belfort is in great shape and looks forward to fighting Couture.
Vitor will train in Las Vegas over the next 9 days as he gets his body accustomed to Vegas from his home in Brazil and looks to focus on the UFC Light Heavyweight title as he told friends "I will bring the title back to my homeland of Brazil." He has said this fight will be a pleasant distraction from the events that has happened to his family. His sister is still missing and no new leads have been found in her case."
Taking a close look at Lee Murray. He stared out as an underdog, but looks like people have already jumped on it, went from +140 to a pick 'em -115.
__________________
Q)..... can`t find odds
on the event....oly/5 dimes/pinny are all crapping out......i know oly will eventually post....
thanks for the info...
A)....this is what they have at MVP: (you can see you did well with your Randy number)
Odds to win the Fight
101 Vitor Belfort +185
102 Randy Couture -235
103 Draw +1350
* Note: **** $5,000 MAXIMUM WAGER***
BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
Odds to win the Fight
201 BJ Penn +250
202 Matt Hughes -325
203 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$5,000 Maximum Wager***
Frank Mir vs Wes Simms
Odds to win the Fight
301 Frank Mir -235
302 Wes Simms +185
303 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Jorge Rivera vs Lee Murray
Odds to win the Fight
401 Jorge Rivera -115
402 Lee Murray -115
403 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Carlos Newton vs Renato Verissimo
Odds to win the Fight
501 Carlos Newton -300
502 Renato Verissimo +220
503 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Karo Parisyan vs George St Pierre
Odds to win the Fight
601 Karo Parisyan -280
602 George St Pierre +200
603 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Hermes Franca vs Josh Thomson
Odds to win the Fight
801 Hermes Franca -115
802 Josh Thomson -115
803 Draw +1350
* Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
Matt Serra vs Jeff Curran
Odds to win Fight
701 Matt Serra -450
702 Jeff Curran +300
703 Draw +1350
Note: ***$2,500 Maximum Wager***
__________________
Q)....... oly just posted...
wonder if joey was browsing the forum...lol...
i was looking at hughes/penn under 3 rds....isn`t penn more of a puncher...i would think that being naturally smaller...and not nearly as strong,penn would try and stay on his feet....while hughes will take him down....and once it gets to the ground,i don`t see penn doing well....
what`s your take,----?...
A)..... So here is the deal with Penn, and the reason why Hughes isnt closer to a 6-1 favorite. BJ is a BJJ black belt and was the first American to win as such in the BJJ World Championships in Brazil. He did this several years ago. He was a phenom on the ground, with a great guard...of course to be a champ he is good from all ground positions.
So while in MMA he seems almost like a standup guy, he has the ground game that few posess. And with Hughes, he was TWICE submitted by Dennis Hallman, so it has been proven that Matt can fall victim to subs.
That said, there is no way I would put big money against Matt. Penn is going up a weight class to face the strongest guy that division has ever seen. Penn will have a much better guard than someone like Trigg would have, but its still going to be tough. Newton is crafty as hell on the ground, but Matt slaughtered him the last time.
Basically, I wont bet this fight and will root for BJ as the underdog, which is the role he said he prefers.
But just not to forget that Hughes is beatable, Check him get choked out .....
------------------------------------------------
GUYS...i don`t profess to have any expertise in mma wagering....and don`t go by what i said...the other guy knows his stuff....but,proceed at your own risk....i may get some more from him prior to saturday night.......
g.l.
__________________
lol.....they posted odds on it.....i have to take a look at it.....
but,as i said....don`t go by me....just throwing some info out there...
i`m already to off my couture bet....and just collect some sure change...and that murray line has moved in his favor since i talked to my mma guy....he opened as the dog...
i understand that if rivera takes murray to the ground,he should win easily...but he intends to punch it out....go figure....
to much sh-t for my little brain to process....that`s why i`m looking to the knowledgable guys....
but,as i said....don`t go by me....just throwing some info out there...
i`m already to off my couture bet....and just collect some sure change...and that murray line has moved in his favor since i talked to my mma guy....he opened as the dog...
i understand that if rivera takes murray to the ground,he should win easily...but he intends to punch it out....go figure....
to much sh-t for my little brain to process....that`s why i`m looking to the knowledgable guys....
FYI: I'm just enjoying the show tonight. Not that there isn't value, but the Globes knocked me on my ass last weekend. I just don't have the time to re-up at OLY.
But, assuming I could roll...
[B]Couture -189 over Belfort[/B]
Couture will decimate Belfort. No question in my mind. He's still a very affordable -189 at OLY, and that's generous. Belfort had hardly any chance even before the unfortunate incident with his sister. Couture is better at everything except the stand-up, which he'll dance around. Belfort has amazing clinchwork, acing those knees, but Couture is the master of the clinch and dirty boxing. He has never been KOed on the feet, and his two TKO losses were on his back against huge heavyweights.
Belfort has not beaten a ranked fighter since 1998.
There is absolutely nothing for Vitor to do here. He will be taken down, pounded, and the fight will be stopped. If you saw the pay scale for the event, you know why Belfort is there. (100k just to show.) He has flaked out before and I can't imagine his sister enabling him to have the presence of mind tonight. Couture by vicious mauling.
[B]Hughes/Penn[/B]
On paper, Penn has zero chance against Hughes. Guys who cut to make 170 can't deal with Matt's strength. Penn is eating to make 170 and he'll be flying through the air by the middle of round one. Fans keep referring to Hughes' submission losses to Dennis Hallman as a weakness in his game. That was a half-decade ago: and what's more, Penn has only submitted one guy in eight fights.
I think this fight is a no play, as I would never lay 3-1 no matter who's fighting, and I think Penn's guardwork may be good enough for him to get to a decision loss.
[B]Murray/Rivera UN 2 Rounds -160[/B]
Murray had ungodly value at +185 when MVP opened their lines. He hits like a heavyweight and has a quality win over Pele. He wins or loses based on what Rivera decides to do. If he gets brave and wants to stand, his head goes into the third row. If he immediately takes it to the ground, he's got a good chance to win. I think Rivera may stand. Murray by KO, but...
The best bet here is the UN 2 -160, as I just don't see these two playing a passive game for ten minutes. Someone's getting submitted or KTFO in short order.
[B]Thomson -120 over Franca[/B]
Lots of hype over Franca, but Thomson is the much better stand-up artist and a good enough wrestler to keep from going to the ground if he doesn't want to. Not a blowout by any means - those odds are right on - but I think Franca gets stuffed here.
[B]Mirs/Sims UN 2 Rounds -230[/B]
It's a lot to lay, but there is no way in Hell these two play patty-cake for even a minute. The line should be UN 1 round. They absolutely hate each other. I'm undecided about a winner: I took the UN 1 round in their first fight and it paid, but Mir was on his way to getting TKOed. Sims foolishly stomped in his face and got disqualified.
Either he bashes Mir or Mir takes one of those lanky arms and snaps it in two. Fast. This is worth the juice, folks.
[B]Serra/Curran OV 2 Rounds +120[/B]
Serra should win a decision.
[B]Newton/Verissimo UN 2 Rounds +160[/B]
Verissimo's line has moved quite a bit. At 2-1, I'd take a long look at him. The more he drops, the less appealing he is. Newton is the vet and is expected to win, but there aren't any shark-fish matches in the UFC anymore. Verissimo just TKOed the durable Gil Castillo, and that's damned impressive.
I really like the UN 2 rounds at +160 for the value. I guess people are expecting a drawn-out ground war, with neither guy having the ability to KO or submit the other. But it looks too pat on paper. It'd be a real small play on the under.
[B]St. Pierre/Parisyan[/B]
Parisyan is a stud but too expensive. No opinion.
If you don't like a lot of the chalk, stick to Couture and the UN in Mir/Sims.
It'll be a great show.
[This message was edited by Royler on January 31, 2004 at 12:02 PM.]
But, assuming I could roll...
[B]Couture -189 over Belfort[/B]
Couture will decimate Belfort. No question in my mind. He's still a very affordable -189 at OLY, and that's generous. Belfort had hardly any chance even before the unfortunate incident with his sister. Couture is better at everything except the stand-up, which he'll dance around. Belfort has amazing clinchwork, acing those knees, but Couture is the master of the clinch and dirty boxing. He has never been KOed on the feet, and his two TKO losses were on his back against huge heavyweights.
Belfort has not beaten a ranked fighter since 1998.
There is absolutely nothing for Vitor to do here. He will be taken down, pounded, and the fight will be stopped. If you saw the pay scale for the event, you know why Belfort is there. (100k just to show.) He has flaked out before and I can't imagine his sister enabling him to have the presence of mind tonight. Couture by vicious mauling.
[B]Hughes/Penn[/B]
On paper, Penn has zero chance against Hughes. Guys who cut to make 170 can't deal with Matt's strength. Penn is eating to make 170 and he'll be flying through the air by the middle of round one. Fans keep referring to Hughes' submission losses to Dennis Hallman as a weakness in his game. That was a half-decade ago: and what's more, Penn has only submitted one guy in eight fights.
I think this fight is a no play, as I would never lay 3-1 no matter who's fighting, and I think Penn's guardwork may be good enough for him to get to a decision loss.
[B]Murray/Rivera UN 2 Rounds -160[/B]
Murray had ungodly value at +185 when MVP opened their lines. He hits like a heavyweight and has a quality win over Pele. He wins or loses based on what Rivera decides to do. If he gets brave and wants to stand, his head goes into the third row. If he immediately takes it to the ground, he's got a good chance to win. I think Rivera may stand. Murray by KO, but...
The best bet here is the UN 2 -160, as I just don't see these two playing a passive game for ten minutes. Someone's getting submitted or KTFO in short order.
[B]Thomson -120 over Franca[/B]
Lots of hype over Franca, but Thomson is the much better stand-up artist and a good enough wrestler to keep from going to the ground if he doesn't want to. Not a blowout by any means - those odds are right on - but I think Franca gets stuffed here.
[B]Mirs/Sims UN 2 Rounds -230[/B]
It's a lot to lay, but there is no way in Hell these two play patty-cake for even a minute. The line should be UN 1 round. They absolutely hate each other. I'm undecided about a winner: I took the UN 1 round in their first fight and it paid, but Mir was on his way to getting TKOed. Sims foolishly stomped in his face and got disqualified.
Either he bashes Mir or Mir takes one of those lanky arms and snaps it in two. Fast. This is worth the juice, folks.
[B]Serra/Curran OV 2 Rounds +120[/B]
Serra should win a decision.
[B]Newton/Verissimo UN 2 Rounds +160[/B]
Verissimo's line has moved quite a bit. At 2-1, I'd take a long look at him. The more he drops, the less appealing he is. Newton is the vet and is expected to win, but there aren't any shark-fish matches in the UFC anymore. Verissimo just TKOed the durable Gil Castillo, and that's damned impressive.
I really like the UN 2 rounds at +160 for the value. I guess people are expecting a drawn-out ground war, with neither guy having the ability to KO or submit the other. But it looks too pat on paper. It'd be a real small play on the under.
[B]St. Pierre/Parisyan[/B]
Parisyan is a stud but too expensive. No opinion.
If you don't like a lot of the chalk, stick to Couture and the UN in Mir/Sims.
It'll be a great show.
[This message was edited by Royler on January 31, 2004 at 12:02 PM.]
royler....thanks for taking the time...particularly since you aren`t playing...really appreciated......solid analysis........
i know you aren`t wagering,so enjoy the show....it does look like a good one...
i`m gonna have to go the vcr route with antonio margarito and rafael marquez on the hbo after dark card....
again,thanks....
i know you aren`t wagering,so enjoy the show....it does look like a good one...
i`m gonna have to go the vcr route with antonio margarito and rafael marquez on the hbo after dark card....
again,thanks....
Well I'm posting to myself, but to finish up the updates:
St. Pierre, Serra, and Franca all win decisions.
Verrissimo beat Newton on a unanimous decision.
Belfort beat Couture on a ref stoppage about 10 seconds into the very first round. Belfort threw a punch that grazed Couture's head and scratched his cornea so the doc had to stop it.
Awesome write-ups Royler. I'll have to come back here for the next one...Tito Otriz vs. CHuck Lidell...April 2...outta be a good one!
St. Pierre, Serra, and Franca all win decisions.
Verrissimo beat Newton on a unanimous decision.
Belfort beat Couture on a ref stoppage about 10 seconds into the very first round. Belfort threw a punch that grazed Couture's head and scratched his cornea so the doc had to stop it.
Awesome write-ups Royler. I'll have to come back here for the next one...Tito Otriz vs. CHuck Lidell...April 2...outta be a good one!
LOL...just so I have this straight: I ante up $1200 for the Globes last weekend and go an astounding 0-7, even after dominating the awards shows last year.
Dejected, I decide to lay off on this UFC and my "pretend" plays go 4-2. God is a funny guy.
I'm not one to bitch - and I didn't even bet! - but it should've been 5-1, as Couture lost in the most absurd way possible. It's just the kind of freak accident that you can't possibly predict. In a way, I'm glad it happened, since a Couture win would've been colored by Belfort's personal strife. Now these two can heal up and we can close this up the right way.
I sincerely hope Randy is ok. He's a class act and had eye problems in another fight. I hope the two don't conspire to end his career.
Hope someone made some cash.
Dejected, I decide to lay off on this UFC and my "pretend" plays go 4-2. God is a funny guy.
I'm not one to bitch - and I didn't even bet! - but it should've been 5-1, as Couture lost in the most absurd way possible. It's just the kind of freak accident that you can't possibly predict. In a way, I'm glad it happened, since a Couture win would've been colored by Belfort's personal strife. Now these two can heal up and we can close this up the right way.
I sincerely hope Randy is ok. He's a class act and had eye problems in another fight. I hope the two don't conspire to end his career.
Hope someone made some cash.
well, not a horrible night....offed couture and took belfort +175 and made a few bucks....offed my under 3 rounds in the penn/hughes bout(my bad....not royler....i should have stuck to my guns...and it didn`t end as i expected it to...if i had won it would have been dumb luck)........and i had murray and lost with wes simms....
sims looked like sh-t....i`m no expert,but the guy showed me nothing....and both guys were absolutely dead after the first round.....either they need cardio work or need to pace themselves a little better...
oh well....a couple dollars up..and i mean literally a couple...
i should be happy i guess,betting on stuff that i have no real expertise in....
i really feel for anyone that had couture.....that was one miserable beat....and i thought hughes fought like he didn`t care at all....i think he must have gotten to the point where he thought he could throw his jock out there and walk away with a win....i felt a little embarrassed for him...
i was gonna tape `em,but the boxing ended so fast,that i watched most of `em....
not one of their better shows,imo...
g.l.
g.l.
sims looked like sh-t....i`m no expert,but the guy showed me nothing....and both guys were absolutely dead after the first round.....either they need cardio work or need to pace themselves a little better...
oh well....a couple dollars up..and i mean literally a couple...
i should be happy i guess,betting on stuff that i have no real expertise in....
i really feel for anyone that had couture.....that was one miserable beat....and i thought hughes fought like he didn`t care at all....i think he must have gotten to the point where he thought he could throw his jock out there and walk away with a win....i felt a little embarrassed for him...
i was gonna tape `em,but the boxing ended so fast,that i watched most of `em....
not one of their better shows,imo...
g.l.
g.l.
